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What I Learned – NFL Week 6 – Best Bets From the SI Gambling Team

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Over the course of this year’s 2020 NFL season, the SI Gambling team, along with a few of our friends from the SI MMQB NFL team are putting our collective heads together to pick our top game of the week against the spread. We’ll keep track over the course of the year for bragging rights as well as transparency. It was a stellar Week 5, as our crew had a second consecutive winning week at 9-4-0 ATS, and putting the team at 37-26-1 ATS overall!Over at SI PRO, the “Vegas Whispers” NFL betting plays and information from SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo have gone 31-22-0 ATS as well as 7-0 on Thursday Night Football.Before checking out the team’s selections and “best bets,” here are the latest Week 6 NFL lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.Editor’s Note – Odds are subject to change.NFL Best Bets for Week 6Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.For even more betting and daily fantasy content, become an SI PRO member today!Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+3) | TOTAL: 52For the third week in a row, the Sunday Night Football hammer happens to be my best bet for the slate.I’ll admit, it’s not easy to want to run to the ticket window to bet a team that got smoked by the Miami Dolphins at home a week ago, but I can also recognize a massive overreaction to a previous week’s game from a mile away. We’ve seen the line initially open at 49ers -3 fall all the way down to 49ers +3 at DraftKings Sportsbook, and even 49ers +3.5 at a few other books.Last week, Jimmy Garoppolo was nowhere close to healthy and having another full week to get back on track should help the 49ers offense re-stabilize. With all of their weapons back on offense, including RB Raheem Mostert, look for the 49ers to go back to their bread and butter in the running game, leading to play action and shots down the field with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. The Rams rank 8th-worst in the NFL at stopping the run, so look for San Francisco to make a concerted effort to wear out Aaron Donald; giving Garoppolo better protection when they look to take some chances through the air.I was able to grab 49ers at +3.5 at one point, but even with the line back to +3, I still think the live dog is in play.BEST BET: San Francisco 49ers +3Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-9) | TOTAL: 47I will not be making the same mistake I made last week. I got away from the “auto-fade” of Adam Gase and suffered my first loss (4-1) ATS. It’s time to right the ship and there’s no better way than with a sure-to-be fired up Dolphins team coming off a 43-17 dismantling of the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5. We know the Miami players will have the added motivation to humiliate their former head coach who was hated after his three seasons in South Beach. Add in Ryan Fitzpatrick ‘revenge’ spot and we have the recipe for a blowout in Week 6 against a Jets team that now has ‘zero’ game-changers on the offensive side of the ball following the sudden release of RB Le’Veon Bell. Lay the wood and back up the truck. Easily the BEST bet on the board.BEST BET: Miami Dolphins -9 (has since moved to -9.5)Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)Washington Football Team at New York Giants (-2.5 ) | TOTAL: 43 The once proud NFC East is now the worst division in professional sports. I feel sorry for the people who have to watch this game in their local market. If you like offense and points scored, this will not be the game for you, Washington has scored over 20 points once this season, and that was Week 1. Meanwhile, the New York Giants are not much better when it comes to scoring points. They were able to score 34 points last week vs the Cowboys horrible defense, but outside of that the Giants highest point output this season was 16. I do not think either New York or Washington will get 20 points this week, so naturally, I will take the under BEST BET: Washington & New York UNDER 43 Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-9) | TOTAL: 47The Jets will be without their starting quarterback, and the team just released one of the two REAL offensive playmakers it had in Le’Veon Bell. This team is now devoid of talent, and head coach Adam Gase can’t possibly have the confidence of the players in the locker room. I interviewed Jets insider Manish Mehta on my SiriusXM show this week, and he agreed. On the flip side, the Dolphins are feeling pretty good about themselves one week after whipping the Niners in San Francisco. Don’t think the players in the Miami locker room won’t remember the disaster that was Gase when he was the head man for the ‘Fins. I think the Dolphins take this game with relative ease, so I’ll lay the nine points.BEST BET: Miami Dolphins -9 (has since moved to -9.5)Dr. Roto (@DrRoto)Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) TOTAL: 51I was this close to picking the Dolphins over the Adam Gase-led Jets, but instead, I will go to the AFC North for my best bet. The Steelers are 4-0 thus far and the crazy thing is that I think we haven’t seen them play at their best. This week they take on their division rival, Cleveland, who comes in on a four game winning streak. The big problem is that the Browns are banged up all across their roster. QB Baker Mayfield could get pulled with one shot to the ribs, WR Odell Beckham, Jr. was sent home by the team on Thursday with an illness, and they have two other injuries to starters on their offensive line. The bottom line is that the Browns are a running team and the Steelers are one of the top teams against the run in the NFL. When the Browns go out of their comfort zone and are forced to pass, they are in big trouble – especially on the road. Give the points.BEST BET: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (has since moved to Steelers -4)Bill Enright (@BillEnright)Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) | TOTAL: 55The Cowboys are 0-5 against the spread and burned my pick last week resulting in my worst record to start the season ever. So why am I going back to the Dallas Dumpster Fire? Maybe I’m masochist, or maybe, just maybe… I’m not as worried about the Dallas offense with Andy Dalton under-center instead of Dak Prescott. Maybe I’m more concerned about the Cardinals inability to get after the passer without Chandler Jones. Maybe I think the Cowboys will win outright but since they are getting the points I’ll take ’em while I got ’em.BEST BET: Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (has since moved to Cowboys +1)Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 51Baker Mayfield and the Browns (4-1) are on the road following a 32-23 win at home against Indianapolis last week. Cleveland has won four straight after getting crushed 38-6 by the Ravens in Baltimore back in Week 1. Closer than the final score indicates, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers (4-0) defeated Philadelphia 38-29 at home last week. During a weird year, with lots of strange scenarios, Pittsburgh is playing a fourth straight home game. While Cleveland is performing at a higher level this year – the Browns are 0-16 SU and 10-5-1 ATS in Pittsburgh dating back to the 2004 NFL season.Cleveland rolls into the Steel City with injury concerns on both sides of the ball. Mayfield (chest) Odell Beckham Jr. (illness), Jarvis Landry (hip, ribs) and Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller (calf) are questionable. Injuries have also left the Browns thin in their secondary on defense. Pittsburgh is the healthiest team in the league as OG David DeCastro (abdomen) is their lone injury concern. The Steelers lackluster effort on defense last week is something they should be focused on during practice this week. Lay the -3.5 points at the DraftKings Sports and back Pittsburgh over AFC East rival Cleveland.BEST BET: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (has since moved to Steelers -4)Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4) | TOTAL: 54.5The total on this game opened at 56.5 and has already dropped down to 54.5. While I still like the UNDER here, the strong play for me remains on laying the points with the Vikings (-4). This is a classic matchup problem for Atlanta who is going to have a hard time on both sides of the ball at the line of scrimmage, and when you are in a negative spot in the trenches on both sides on the road, it spells disaster. Both teams have underachieved but the Vikings have remained competitive and with similar rosters from a season ago, they dominated Atlanta 28-12 in Week 1. I expect a similar stout performance from the Vikings defense today and an easy victory for the Vikings sending Atlanta to another loss.BEST BET: Minnesota Vikings -4Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) | TOTAL: 55I know the Cowboys have been terrible against the spread so far but Mr. Ginger (Andy Dalton, in case you’re wondering) is now running the show and getting some points. Nobody believes in Dalton as much as I do this week and I love getting the points in an emotional game for the Cowboys. Make no mistake, they are playing for Dak and will leave everything on the field and Mr. Ginger will be up to the task, do his part and look for Zeke to finally break the 100 yard barrier. The wrong team is favored in this matchup. I look for the Cowboys to make a statement in this game that Andy Dalton can win and can get this team positioned to win the division and make a playoff run. Nick Foles part two? Time will tell.BEST BET: Cowboys +1.5Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4) | TOTAL: 54.5No Dalvin Cook? No problem. The Vikings may be 1-4 but they’re not this bad. They had the Seahawks beaten and while they let it slip away, they’re still fighting. The Falcons at 0-5, however they have serious issues on both sides of the ball and are repeatedly proving they are not ready to win a game any time soon. It all starts with their defense which ranks 31st in passing yards allowed and 30th in total points allowed, and their offense has struggled to put up 16 in each of the last two weeks. The Vikings have won 12 straight at home ATS after a loss and I look for them to put it on the Falcons and win by double digits.BEST BET: Minnesota Vikings -4Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)New York Jets at Miami Dolphins -9 | Total: 47This has to be it for Gase, right? His decision quality is just mysteries. He puts Darnold back in the game visibly hurt in week 4, resulting in losing his QB not only for week 5, but this week as well. Now three-time pro bowler Le’Veon Bell has been released? Not only are they 0-5 SU, but now also 0-5 ATS and losing by 20 at home against AZ last week. The Dolphins on the other side have some “Fitzmagic” going. Fitzpatrick now has three 300-yard games and is completing over 70% of his passes, and the Dolphins are high off last week’s dominant 43-17 victory over the defending NFC champion 49ers. The Jets have averaged 31.25 points per game in their last four, while the Jets have averaged 14. This should be a rout.BEST BET: Dolphins -9 (has since moved to -9.5)Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+3) | TOTAL: 52I’m never crazy about division rivals giving points on the road, and I love me some Kyle Shanahan, but I don’t think the lines have caught up to the fact that the 49ers’ pass rush—and therefore defense as a whole—is nowhere near what it was a year ago due to the Nick Bosa and Dee Ford injuries (and the departure of DeForest Buckner). The return of Emmanuel Moseley steadies the secondary, but offensively the Rams have done whatever they wanted against opponents this year and there’s little reason to think a team with a middling pass rush is going to knock Sean McVay off-track. (Also, keep in mind that after getting dominated in their first matchup last year, the Rams dropped 31 on a full-strength Niners defense in the rematch last December.) With the issues Jimmy Garoppolo is having—physically and mentally— and the lack of true home-field advantage in Santa Clara, I like a touchdown-plus win for L.A.BEST BET: Rams -3Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)Packers at Buccaneers +1 | TOTAL: 55I like the Packers here, and I’ve been surprised watching this number shrink throughout the week. I understand the optimism around the Bucs if and when Tom Brady finally gets both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans on the field and healthy together. But Aaron Rodgers also gets Davante Adams back, and even without him I think the Packers have clearly been the better team. Is that a little simplistic? Yes, but when the line is a single point I’m just picking a winner here. The Packers are undefeated this season, both straight up and against the spread, and now coming off a bye week. They’ve already won in Minnesota (comfortably) and in New Orleans (by a touchdown), and I have no qualms about picking them to win on the road again. I have every reason to believe the Packers will keep it rolling.BEST BET: Green Bay Packers -1NAMEWEEK 6 PICKRECORD/LAST WEEK W/LBen Heisler49ERS +33-2 (W)Frankie TaddeoDOLPHINS -94-1 (L)Corey ParsonWSH/NYG U432-2 (W)Michael FabianoDOLPHINS -93-2 (W)Dr. RotoSTEELERS -3.54-1 (W)Bill EnrightCOWBOYS +1.51-4 (L)Roy LarkingSTEELERS -3.54-1 (W)Steve RennerVIKINGS -42-3 (L)Ian RitchieCOWBOYS +1.53-2 (W)Scott AtkinsVIKINGS -43-2 (W)Casey OlsonDOLPHINS -93-1-1 (W)Gary GramlingRAMS -32-3 (L)Mitch GoldichPACKERS -13-2 (W)LAST WEEK’S RECORD (ATS): 9-4-0COLLECTIVE RECORD (ATS): 37-26-1Check out this week’s staff picks from the MMQB Team!


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